Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 538 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 538 TPA 07:31 → LAX 09:24 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 749 TPA 19:15 → LAX 21:17 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 538 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:31	LAX 09:24	12%	3%	0.8%	89%
UA 2019 United Flight history →	TPA 12:35	LAX 14:43	20%	8%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
DL 749 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:15	LAX 21:17	25%	7%	1.1%	76%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	7h 12m	90%	75%
American Details →	TPA 07:57 → DFW 09:42AA 349	1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:53 → LAX 12:14AA 3181	7h 17m	93%	71%
American Details →	TPA 05:57 → DFW 07:49AA 1369	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → LAX 09:49AA 1996	6h 52m	80%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON