Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 1851 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1851 TPA 07:05 → MDW 08:54 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2896 TPA 19:49 → MDW 21:38 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1851 Southwest	TPA 07:05	MDW 08:54	8%	2%	1.4%	no record
WN 4444 Southwest	TPA 11:04	MDW 12:53	16%	4%	2.3%	no record
WN 2746 Southwest	TPA 17:32	MDW 19:21	28%	9%	1.5%	no record
WN 2896 Southwest	TPA 19:49	MDW 21:38	28%	8%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON