Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1279 at 09:11 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–28%.

Safest bet that day DL 1279 TPA 09:11 → RDU 11:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2730 TPA 13:57 → RDU 16:08 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	TPA 09:11	RDU 11:04	7%	3%	1.3%	91%
WN 3556 Southwest	TPA 08:30	RDU 10:20	9%	2%	1.0%	no record
MX 766 Breeze	TPA 07:08	RDU 09:08	9%	3%	1.9%	no record
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:59	RDU 22:55	19%	6%	1.3%	80%
MX 606 Breeze	TPA 13:22	RDU 15:21	23%	9%	6.1%	no record
F9 2730 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 13:57	RDU 16:08	28%	14%	6.7%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON