tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Southwest via Hobby, leaving 05:44, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 518 Alaska TPA 19:23 SAN 21:13 29% 6% 1.4% no record
WN 3074 Southwest TPA 16:49 SAN 18:57 35% 8% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:33 → SLC 09:13DL 2045 2h 51m Salt Lake City SLC 12:04 → SAN 13:08DL 1296 9h 35m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263 1h 36m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 8h 39m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 11:48 → SAN 13:17DL 843 10h 02m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → SAN 12:57DL 540 8h 27m 98% 80%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:44 → HOU 07:01WN 4468 52m Houston HOU 07:53 → SAN 09:17WN 2115 6h 33m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 1h 24m Detroit DTW 12:32 → SAN 14:12DL 761 8h 42m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605 4h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → SAN 17:13DL 924 10h 13m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 18m Dulles IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03UA 2163 9h 03m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:15 → IAH 08:42UA 2491 48m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 6h 36m 71% 56%
AmericanDetails → TPA 19:28 → DFW 21:20AA 2512 1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:29 → SAN 23:37AA 2568 7h 09m 74% 43%
AmericanDetails → TPA 13:59 → ORD 16:00AA 2920 52m Chicago ORD 16:52 → SAN 19:08AA 1543 8h 09m 48% 28%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON