Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2045 Delta Flight history →	TPA 06:33	SLC 09:13	9%	3%	0.7%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 07:45 → MSP 10:02DL 2263	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	8h 34m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 55m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	8h 20m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:31 → LAX 09:24DL 538	3h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 13:10 → SLC 16:03DL 1647	10h 32m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	7h 51m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 12:31 → MSP 14:53DL 2301	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	9h 36m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	TPA 07:16 → SEA 10:10DL 1090	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	11h 24m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → SLC 14:11DL 935	7h 41m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON