Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 4197 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4197 TPA 06:14 → STL 07:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1123 TPA 21:44 → STL 23:14 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4197 Southwest	TPA 06:14	STL 07:43	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3345 Southwest	TPA 12:29	STL 13:58	18%	5%	1.4%	no record
WN 1123 Southwest	TPA 21:44	STL 23:14	24%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON