Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: AA 1729 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 1729 American Flight history →	TUL 06:30	CLT 09:48	13%	4%	0.9%	92%
AA 2657 American	TUL 14:43	CLT 18:01	30%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → CLT 11:26DL 3190	4h 26m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 10m	97%	82%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	3h 06m Denver	DEN 10:06 → CLT 15:20UA 2231	8h 20m	97%	78%
American Details →	TUL 06:07 → DFW 07:23AA 1090	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:45 → CLT 13:29AA 2909	6h 22m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070	7h 52m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → CLT 16:17DL 3031	5h 13m	99%	76%
American Details →	TUL 16:21 → DCA 20:04AA 5128 · flown by PSA	2h 13m Washington	DCA 22:17 → CLT 23:51AA 2173	6h 30m	100%	73%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 18:58 → CLT 20:09DL 2132	6h 28m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 10:27 → ORD 12:20AA 4135 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 13:25 → CLT 16:13AA 1409	4h 46m	72%	42%
American Details →	TUL 08:48 → PHX 09:27AA 3434 · flown by Envoy	46m Phoenix	PHX 10:13 → CLT 17:14AA 1676	7h 26m	35%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON