Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 5128 at 16:21, with a 41% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5128 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TUL 16:21	DCA 20:04	41%	16%	3.7%	90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	2h 30m Denver	DEN 09:30 → DCA 14:59UA 789	7h 59m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	1h 53m Atlanta	ATL 10:57 → DCA 12:43DL 1798	5h 43m	96%	80%
American Details →	TUL 06:07 → DFW 07:23AA 1090	1h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:48 → DCA 13:03AA 1151	5h 56m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	6h 26m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	6h 04m	93%	70%
American Details →	TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095	2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	7h 12m	95%	68%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	7h 06m	96%	62%
American Details →	TUL 12:57 → DFW 14:18AA 2352	3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:49 → DCA 22:03AA 472	8h 06m	100%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TUL 10:27 → ORD 12:20AA 4135 · flown by Envoy	1h 25m Chicago	ORD 13:45 → DCA 16:41AA 789	5h 14m	75%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON