Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 2242 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–42%.

Safest bet that day WN 2242 TUL 06:06 → DEN 06:52 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5673 TUL 19:02 → DEN 19:54 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2242 Southwest	TUL 06:06	DEN 06:52	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
UA 5667 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 06:00	DEN 07:00	10%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 1435 United	TUL 08:58	DEN 10:14	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
UA 5276 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 11:44	DEN 12:44	22%	6%	0.7%	85%
WN 2639 Southwest	TUL 13:44	DEN 14:31	25%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4204 Southwest	TUL 19:14	DEN 20:09	30%	8%	0.9%	no record
UA 5914 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUL 17:10	DEN 18:10	39%	8%	0.9%	67%
OO 5673 SkyWest	TUL 19:02	DEN 19:54	42%	9%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON