Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, OO 6286 at 15:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 6286 SkyWest	TUL 15:55	LAX 17:24	19%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895	10h 12m	98%	82%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	3h 02m Denver	DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405	7h 34m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	6h 27m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	8h 13m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 23:01 → LAX 00:47 +1DL 8783	9h 59m	99%	78%
American Details →	TUL 06:07 → DFW 07:23AA 1090	3h 30m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:53 → LAX 12:14AA 3181	8h 07m	99%	74%
American Details →	TUL 06:30 → CLT 09:48AA 1729	2h 17m Charlotte	CLT 12:05 → LAX 14:21AA 1988	9h 51m	93%	73%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 18:49 → LAX 20:34DL 996	9h 53m	96%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON