tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Miami on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MIA 13:02DL 1332 6h 02m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:07 → DFW 07:23AA 1090 1h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:07 → MIA 13:07AA 868 6h 00m 95% 70%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:30 → CLT 09:48AA 1729 1h 09m Charlotte CLT 10:57 → MIA 12:58AA 2768 5h 28m 89% 70%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 2h 32m Denver DEN 09:32 → MIA 15:28UA 1418 8h 28m 97% 69%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MIA 16:55DL 1386 5h 51m 98% 66%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 3h 40m Atlanta ATL 19:25 → MIA 21:21DL 1588 7h 40m 97% 64%
AmericanDetails → TUL 07:47 → DFW 09:12AA 3095 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:29 → MIA 14:29AA 656 5h 42m 91% 64%
AmericanDetails → TUL 12:57 → DFW 14:18AA 2352 2h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:08 → MIA 21:09AA 3308 7h 12m 100% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON