Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


QX 2329 Horizon	TUL 17:58	SEA 19:56	25%	6%	1.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 11:17 → SEA 13:26DL 629	9h 26m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	TUL 08:00 → SLC 09:55DL 4006 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	8h 35m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	11h 01m	100%	76%
American Details →	TUL 08:48 → PHX 09:27AA 3434 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 11:22 → SEA 14:26AA 2783	7h 38m	100%	73%
United Details →	TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Denver	DEN 08:01 → SEA 09:57UA 1348	5h 57m	90%	72%
Delta Details →	TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	9h 11m	90%	67%
Delta Details →	TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 18:54 → SEA 21:03DL 714	10h 22m	96%	66%
United Details →	TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest	3h 14m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013	8h 15m	97%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Denver	DEN 19:20 → SEA 21:29UA 2767	6h 19m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON