tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4006 at 08:00, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 4006 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → TUL 08:00 SLC 09:55 6% 3% 0.7% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Tulsa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUL 06:00 → ATL 09:04DL 1259 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 8h 50m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → TUL 06:00 → DEN 07:00UA 5667 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Denver DEN 08:00 → SLC 09:37UA 497 4h 37m 90% 81%
DeltaDetails → TUL 10:04 → ATL 13:05DL 2754 2h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 8h 14m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → TUL 06:07 → DFW 07:23AA 1090 1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:41 → SLC 10:38AA 1878 5h 31m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUL 16:48 → ATL 19:55DL 1186 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 22:03 → SLC 00:08 +1DL 453 8h 20m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → TUL 08:48 → PHX 09:27AA 3434 · flown by Envoy 1h 02m Phoenix PHX 10:29 → SLC 13:14AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest 5h 26m 85% 70%
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 6h 34m 95% 69%
DeltaDetails → TUL 12:41 → ATL 15:45DL 2620 2h 10m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → SLC 19:56DL 653 8h 15m 94% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUL 11:44 → DEN 12:44UA 5276 · flown by SkyWest 56m Denver DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840 4h 29m 74% 56%
UnitedDetails → TUL 17:10 → DEN 18:10UA 5914 · flown by SkyWest 1h 13m Denver DEN 19:23 → SLC 20:56UA 2769 4h 46m 73% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON