tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via DFW, leaving 07:02, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching Atlanta on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 886 Delta Flight history → TUS 06:00 ATL 12:38 6% 2% 0.9% 97%
DL 937 Delta Flight history → TUS 13:49 ATL 20:45 19% 5% 0.9% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Atlanta is 3 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 17:55 → ATL 23:58DL 905 9h 42m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906 9h 17m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → TUS 06:20 → LAX 08:00DL 3502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Los Angeles LAX 11:00 → ATL 18:37DL 528 9h 17m 96% 75%
AmericanDetails → TUS 05:56 → DFW 10:14AA 2193 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:15 → ATL 15:27AA 1008 6h 31m 96% 70%
UnitedDetails → TUS 07:05 → SFO 09:38UA 4683 · flown by SkyWest 1h 19m San Francisco SFO 10:57 → ATL 18:44UA 702 8h 39m 86% 65%
AmericanDetails → TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749 8h 01m 95% 59%
AmericanDetails → TUS 07:02 → DFW 11:20AA 2555 2h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:33 → ATL 16:52AA 2398 6h 50m 87% 59%
AmericanDetails → TUS 09:30 → DFW 13:52AA 1014 2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:03 → ATL 19:26AA 2403 6h 56m 93% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON