tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: OO 5575 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 46%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5575 SkyWest TUS 06:49 ORD 12:31 23% 9% 4.0% no record
AA 2537 American Flight history → TUS 14:21 ORD 19:53 46% 21% 1.6% 66%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → TUS 20:16 → PHX 21:16AA 6457 · flown by SkyWest 2h 14m Phoenix PHX 23:30 → ORD 05:06 +1AA 3236 6h 50m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23DL 3679 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Seattle SEA 17:40 → ORD 23:38DL 2108 9h 45m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → TUS 13:49 → ATL 20:45DL 937 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 8h 04m 94% 72%
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:16 → SFO 15:41UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958 9h 43m 95% 71%
DeltaDetails → TUS 11:16 → SLC 14:13DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 3h 08m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 8h 13m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → TUS 13:48 → PHX 14:56AA 3958 · flown by Envoy 3h 05m Phoenix PHX 18:01 → ORD 23:28AA 695 7h 40m 100% 67%
DeltaDetails → TUS 07:05 → SLC 10:07DL 3745 · flown by SkyWest 3h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 13:43 → ORD 17:49DL 2377 8h 44m 100% 65%
AmericanDetails → TUS 13:18 → DFW 17:50AA 2926 3h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → ORD 00:00 +1AA 1894 8h 42m 96% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TUS 13:16 → SFO 15:41UA 5583 · flown by SkyWest 56m San Francisco SFO 16:37 → ORD 22:50UA 1887 7h 34m 64% 44%
UnitedDetails → TUS 15:26 → SFO 17:59UA 6006 · flown by SkyWest 49m San Francisco SFO 18:48 → ORD 00:59 +1UA 1958 7h 33m 60% 44%
AmericanDetails → TUS 15:57 → DFW 20:29AA 584 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → ORD 00:00 +1AA 1894 6h 03m 65% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON