Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3247 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 3247 TUS 07:44 → PHX 08:43 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3257 TUS 17:34 → PHX 18:37 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3247 Southwest	TUS 07:44	PHX 08:43	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3649 Envoy	TUS 08:33	PHX 09:37	17%	4%	1.1%	no record
OO 6186 SkyWest	TUS 07:10	PHX 08:20	19%	6%	2.4%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TUS 13:48	PHX 14:56	19%	5%	0.9%	91%
AA 1559 American	TUS 10:55	PHX 11:57	19%	6%	1.5%	no record
AA 3319 American	TUS 11:50	PHX 12:52	21%	6%	1.3%	no record
OO 6294 SkyWest	TUS 15:13	PHX 16:18	22%	9%	4.6%	no record
OO 9912 SkyWest	TUS 16:18	PHX 17:19	23%	9%	3.1%	no record
AA 6457 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 20:16	PHX 21:16	25%	11%	3.1%	60%
AA 6207 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 18:23	PHX 19:23	26%	10%	3.1%	70%
WN 951 Southwest	TUS 17:14	PHX 18:13	26%	10%	1.5%	no record
AA 3257 American	TUS 17:34	PHX 18:37	32%	9%	2.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON