Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 3679 at 11:53 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 3679 TUS 11:53 → SEA 15:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 641 TUS 15:52 → SEA 18:56 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3679 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TUS 11:53	SEA 15:23	15%	5%	0.6%	88%
AS 767 Alaska Flight history →	TUS 07:22	SEA 10:28	23%	3%	0.8%	94%worse than usual
AS 641 Alaska Flight history →	TUS 15:52	SEA 18:56	29%	7%	4.7%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON