Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 5575 at 13:06, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5575 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TVC 13:06	CLT 15:17	23%	7%	1.4%	89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TVC 06:19 → DTW 07:27DL 2292	2h 32m Detroit	DTW 09:59 → CLT 11:50DL 2684	5h 31m	98%	88%
United Details →	TVC 08:29 → ORD 08:56UA 3713 · flown by Republic	2h 21m Chicago	ORD 11:17 → CLT 14:41UA 3450 · flown by Republic	6h 12m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	TVC 13:36 → MSP 14:14DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821	5h 13m	80%	62%
American Details →	TVC 14:49 → ORD 15:15AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	3h 32m Chicago	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	7h 10m	100%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON