Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 5618 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–61%.

Safest bet that day OO 5618 TVC 06:02 → ORD 06:23 · 18% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5865 TVC 17:58 → ORD 18:17 · 61% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5618 SkyWest	TVC 06:02	ORD 06:23	18%	9%	3.7%	no record
UA 3713 United flown by Republic Flight history →	TVC 08:29	ORD 08:56	19%	5%	2.4%	47%
UA 346 United	TVC 10:19	ORD 10:38	27%	10%	2.2%	no record
OO 6297 SkyWest	TVC 08:13	ORD 08:39	29%	13%	3.8%	no record
MQ 3493 Envoy	TVC 12:02	ORD 12:32	37%	13%	5.8%	no record
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TVC 14:49	ORD 15:15	40%	17%	8.4%	67%
OO 5839 SkyWest	TVC 11:53	ORD 12:13	41%	17%	4.2%	no record
AA 6293 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TVC 20:13	ORD 20:32	43%	17%	3.7%	95%worse than usual
OO 5592 SkyWest	TVC 14:06	ORD 14:26	56%	24%	8.0%	no record
OO 5865 SkyWest	TVC 17:58	ORD 18:17	61%	27%	11.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON