Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 2819 at 13:49, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2819 Southwest	TYS 13:49	DAL 15:12	17%	4%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 1 h behind Knoxville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 08:15 → DAL 09:21DL 441	4h 41m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	TYS 16:32 → ATL 17:34DL 1148	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 20:44 → DAL 22:03DL 1104	6h 31m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	6h 57m	100%	70%
Delta Details →	TYS 08:39 → ATL 09:42DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → DAL 12:05DL 1115	4h 26m	85%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON