tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–34% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5109 PSA TYS 10:48 DCA 12:29 24% 9% 2.1% no record
OH 5436 PSA TYS 18:03 DCA 19:49 34% 16% 2.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 5h 47m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:43 → MSP 08:13DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983 7h 05m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994 1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:48 → DCA 13:03AA 1151 7h 26m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:24 → DTW 09:07DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 53m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 4h 04m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 5h 47m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → TYS 08:39 → ATL 09:42DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 1h 15m Atlanta ATL 10:57 → DCA 12:43DL 1798 4h 04m 87% 72%
DeltaDetails → TYS 11:57 → ATL 12:59DL 1743 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 5h 33m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → TYS 08:46 → ATL 09:49DL 5279 · flown by Endeavor 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 10m 95% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 46m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727 3h 44m 74% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON