tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 3053 Allegiant TYS 06:29 MCO 08:14 9% 5% 1.3% no record
WN 747 Southwest TYS 13:14 MCO 15:00 14% 6% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → TYS 05:49 → IAD 07:34UA 4311 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 33m Dulles IAD 09:07 → MCO 11:38UA 379 5h 49m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → TYS 05:40 → ATL 06:40DL 3015 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 08:25 → MCO 09:56DL 1213 4h 16m 97% 85%
DeltaDetails → TYS 06:43 → MSP 08:13DL 5523 · flown by Endeavor 1h 14m Minneapolis MSP 09:27 → MCO 13:40DL 1208 6h 57m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → TYS 07:24 → DTW 09:07DL 5196 · flown by Endeavor 1h 18m Detroit DTW 10:25 → MCO 13:04DL 1455 5h 40m 93% 78%
DeltaDetails → TYS 08:39 → ATL 09:42DL 5317 · flown by Endeavor 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 12:52 → MCO 14:22DL 1576 5h 43m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → TYS 18:05 → ATL 19:09DL 2571 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 22:51 → MCO 00:21 +1DL 1162 6h 16m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → TYS 13:48 → IAD 15:24UA 4848 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 31m Dulles IAD 17:55 → MCO 20:29UA 2463 6h 41m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → TYS 05:37 → DFW 07:06AA 994 1h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:26 → MCO 12:10AA 2136 6h 33m 96% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TYS 14:56 → DFW 16:22AA 2544 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:18 → MCO 21:10AA 2974 6h 14m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON