Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5620 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 5620 TYS 06:00 → PHL 07:56 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest G4 3055 TYS 16:33 → PHL 18:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5620 American flown by PSA Flight history →	TYS 06:00	PHL 07:56	9%	6%	2.4%	86%
OH 5215 PSA	TYS 11:30	PHL 13:21	18%	9%	1.8%	no record
OH 5274 PSA	TYS 18:16	PHL 20:25	26%	11%	2.5%	no record
PT 5918 Piedmont	TYS 16:07	PHL 18:09	27%	8%	1.8%	no record
G4 3055 Allegiant	TYS 16:33	PHL 18:34	33%	12%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON