Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 3051 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 3051 VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2170 VPS 17:01 → ATL 19:14 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3051 Delta Flight history →	VPS 09:21	ATL 11:34	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 2451 Delta Flight history →	VPS 07:42	ATL 09:54	10%	3%	0.9%	89%
DL 3085 Delta Flight history →	VPS 06:00	ATL 08:15	12%	3%	0.9%	89%
DL 2048 Delta Flight history →	VPS 12:02	ATL 14:16	18%	3%	0.9%	85%
DL 2832 Delta Flight history →	VPS 14:45	ATL 17:04	19%	5%	0.9%	77%
DL 2803 Delta Flight history →	VPS 19:07	ATL 21:21	19%	4%	1.0%	82%
DL 2170 Delta	VPS 17:01	ATL 19:14	22%	7%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON