tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → BOS 12:45DL 855 5h 45m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:42 → ATL 09:54DL 2451 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BOS 13:47DL 862 5h 05m 95% 81%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 07m Miami MIA 09:53 → BOS 13:13AA 3247 6h 13m 92% 73%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 12:47 → BOS 15:20DL 1293 4h 59m 92% 72%
DeltaDetails → VPS 19:07 → ATL 21:21DL 2803 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865 5h 13m 88% 67%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:55 → BOS 23:20DL 300 7h 35m 97% 64%
DeltaDetails → VPS 12:02 → ATL 14:16DL 2048 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821 7h 58m 99% 64%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30AA 2560 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:45 → BOS 17:27AA 1602 9h 08m 97% 55%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:56 → DFW 18:09AA 2501 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:58 → BOS 23:33AA 1366 6h 37m 69% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON