Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1100 at 16:39, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1100 Southwest	VPS 16:39	BWI 20:11	17%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711	6h 01m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	5h 32m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	VPS 12:02 → ATL 14:16DL 2048	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 18:04 → BWI 19:58DL 2928	6h 56m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	5h 41m	95%	72%
American Details →	VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30AA 2560	2h 10m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:40 → BWI 15:39AA 2669	7h 20m	95%	68%
American Details →	VPS 12:49 → CLT 15:33AA 5165 · flown by PSA	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 17:58 → BWI 19:31AA 1278	5h 42m	94%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	VPS 15:56 → DFW 18:09AA 2501	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:57 → BWI 23:10AA 2251	6h 14m	68%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON