tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: G4 2009 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
G4 2009 Allegiant VPS 09:16 CVG 12:13 14% 5% 0.9% no record
G4 397 Allegiant VPS 19:26 CVG 22:23 30% 9% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 44m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 4h 25m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:42 → ATL 09:54DL 2451 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → CVG 15:11DL 3169 6h 29m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → VPS 19:07 → ATL 21:21DL 2803 1h 50m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 4h 32m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 28m Atlanta ATL 19:32 → CVG 21:01DL 2248 5h 16m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → VPS 12:02 → ATL 14:16DL 2048 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 17:29 → CVG 19:00DL 3119 5h 58m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30AA 2560 1h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:02 → CVG 14:17AA 3305 5h 58m 94% 69%
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:56 → DFW 18:09AA 2501 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → CVG 23:30AA 1266 6h 34m 89% 53%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:49 → CLT 15:33AA 5165 · flown by PSA 1h 22m Charlotte CLT 16:55 → CVG 18:12AA 5293 · flown by PSA 4h 23m 82% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON