Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, WN 1319 at 10:16, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 1319 Southwest	VPS 10:16	DAL 12:21	10%	2%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → DAL 12:05DL 1115	6h 05m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 20:44 → DAL 22:03DL 1104	7h 18m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:59 → DAL 15:03DL 512	5h 42m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	VPS 12:02 → ATL 14:16DL 2048	2h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:44 → DAL 17:54DL 2780	5h 52m	97%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON