tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, MQ 3832 at 12:23, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 3832 Envoy VPS 12:23 DCA 15:44 23% 4% 2.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 10:57 → DCA 12:43DL 1798 5h 43m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:42 → ATL 09:54DL 2451 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 6h 14m 100% 75%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 3h 21m Miami MIA 12:07 → DCA 14:50AA 1595 7h 50m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30AA 2560 2h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414 7h 40m 96% 69%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 20:55 → DCA 22:48DL 378 7h 03m 97% 68%
DeltaDetails → VPS 12:02 → ATL 14:16DL 2048 2h 24m Atlanta ATL 16:40 → DCA 18:37DL 950 5h 35m 97% 68%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:49 → CLT 15:33AA 5165 · flown by PSA 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 18:22 → DCA 19:52AA 527 6h 03m 94% 55%
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:56 → DFW 18:09AA 2501 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077 7h 03m 88% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON