Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2560 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2560 VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 2501 VPS 15:56 → DFW 18:09 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2560 American Flight history →	VPS 07:19	DFW 09:30	11%	6%	1.2%	87%
AA 3089 American	VPS 12:45	DFW 14:55	18%	6%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3668 Envoy	VPS 19:12	DFW 21:19	19%	4%	1.4%	no record
AA 2501 American Flight history →	VPS 15:56	DFW 18:09	24%	8%	1.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON