tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 2h 50m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380 6h 20m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 13:55 → JFK 16:29DL 1575 6h 08m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy 1h 50m Miami MIA 10:36 → JFK 13:34AA 2062 6h 34m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → VPS 19:07 → ATL 21:21DL 2803 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 22:55 → JFK 01:02 +1DL 624 4h 55m 91% 64%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30AA 2560 1h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:33 → JFK 14:50AA 481 6h 31m 90% 59%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → JFK 21:38DL 2378 5h 53m 95% 58%
DeltaDetails → VPS 12:02 → ATL 14:16DL 2048 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 17:31 → JFK 19:38DL 2398 6h 36m 98% 54%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:49 → CLT 15:33AA 5165 · flown by PSA 2h 29m Charlotte CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657 6h 17m 94% 51%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON