Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Valparaiso). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	5h 42m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	VPS 07:42 → ATL 09:54DL 2451	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 08m	99%	69%
Delta Details →	VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	5h 29m	96%	65%
American Details →	VPS 06:00 → MIA 08:46AA 4301 · flown by Envoy	1h 27m Miami	MIA 10:13 → LGA 13:11AA 2424	6h 11m	96%	58%
American Details →	VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30AA 2560	1h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:57 → LGA 15:39AA 2922	7h 20m	94%	56%
Delta Details →	VPS 12:02 → ATL 14:16DL 2048	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → LGA 20:27DL 434	7h 25m	98%	49%
Delta Details →	VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:29 → LGA 22:36DL 490	6h 51m	97%	49%
American Details →	VPS 12:49 → CLT 15:33AA 5165 · flown by PSA	2h 36m Charlotte	CLT 18:09 → LGA 20:14AA 1060	6h 25m	94%	41%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	VPS 15:56 → DFW 18:09AA 2501	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:59 → LGA 23:26AA 1375	6h 30m	70%	34%
American Details →	VPS 12:49 → CLT 15:33AA 5165 · flown by PSA	53m Charlotte	CLT 16:26 → LGA 18:29AA 1722	4h 40m	75%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON