tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Chicago on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:22 → ORD 12:34DL 2894 6h 34m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → VPS 19:07 → ATL 21:21DL 2803 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → ORD 23:53DL 1199 4h 46m 88% 67%
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:42 → ATL 09:54DL 2451 3h 08m Atlanta ATL 13:02 → ORD 14:14DL 1477 6h 32m 100% 64%
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:56 → DFW 18:09AA 2501 3h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:29 → ORD 00:00 +1AA 1894 8h 04m 96% 63%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 19:37 → ORD 20:48DL 1139 6h 03m 95% 58%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:49 → CLT 15:33AA 5165 · flown by PSA 2h 53m Charlotte CLT 18:26 → ORD 19:51AA 2488 7h 02m 94% 57%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → ORD 16:35DL 2738 7h 14m 99% 56%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30AA 2560 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:08 → ORD 15:22AA 1618 8h 03m 98% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → VPS 15:56 → DFW 18:09AA 2501 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:00 → ORD 21:28AA 2656 5h 32m 71% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON