tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:42, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → VPS 07:42 → ATL 09:54DL 2451 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 12:16 → STL 13:03DL 566 5h 21m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 06:00 → ATL 08:15DL 3085 1h 54m Atlanta ATL 10:09 → STL 11:00DL 1400 5h 00m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → VPS 19:07 → ATL 21:21DL 2803 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 23:10 → STL 23:53DL 1403 4h 46m 94% 75%
DeltaDetails → VPS 09:21 → ATL 11:34DL 3051 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → STL 16:06DL 543 6h 45m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → VPS 07:19 → DFW 09:30AA 2560 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:25 → STL 12:22AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 5h 03m 85% 72%
DeltaDetails → VPS 12:02 → ATL 14:16DL 2048 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 17:10 → STL 17:53DL 1393 5h 51m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → VPS 14:45 → ATL 17:04DL 2832 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 19:12 → STL 20:03DL 2833 5h 18m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → VPS 12:49 → CLT 15:33AA 5165 · flown by PSA 2h 41m Charlotte CLT 18:14 → STL 19:21AA 2686 6h 32m 94% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON