Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 657 at 09:35 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–29%.

Safest bet that day UA 657 IAD 09:35 → LAX 12:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2319 IAD 17:55 → SNA 20:21 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 657 United	IAD 09:35	LAX 12:16	12%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1974 Southwest	BWI 06:18	LAX 08:49	12%	2%	0.9%	no record
UA 1591 United	BWI 07:50	LAX 10:44	12%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	LAX 10:47	15%	4%	0.8%	86%
UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	15%	5%	0.7%	90%
UA 2011 United	IAD 06:56	LAX 09:21	15%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1966 American Flight history →	DCA 08:40	LAX 11:19	17%	5%	0.9%	83%
UA 1546 United Flight history →	BWI 17:39	LAX 20:30	19%	9%	0.7%	66%
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:42	LAX 18:02	19%	6%	0.7%	89%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	DCA 16:45	LAX 19:19	21%	7%	1.3%	75%
AS 5 Alaska Flight history →	DCA 09:59	LAX 12:27	21%	4%	0.9%	71%
UA 1385 United Flight history →	IAD 22:20	LAX 00:57	23%	7%	0.7%	84%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	27%	7%	0.7%	71%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	DCA 18:01	LAX 20:41	27%	10%	0.9%	70%
WN 4971 Southwest	BWI 14:39	LAX 16:50	27%	6%	0.8%	no record
UA 2319 United	IAD 17:55	SNA 20:21	29%	6%	1.0%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BWI 07:42 → SLC 10:23DL 1176	1h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:26 → ONT 12:25DL 1173	7h 43m	91%	82%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665	7h 38m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	7h 44m	95%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON