Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3871 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 3871 XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 5233 XNA 18:16 → CLT 21:28 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3871 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 08:51	CLT 12:12	12%	4%	1.6%	91%
OH 5349 PSA	XNA 05:01	CLT 08:14	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 5446 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 11:07	CLT 14:30	14%	5%	1.3%	81%
AA 5327 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 15:20	CLT 18:40	19%	6%	1.6%	86%
AA 5233 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 18:16	CLT 21:28	25%	7%	2.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON