Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 3824 at 07:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3824 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:00	DCA 10:39	14%	3%	0.9%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:48 → DCA 13:03AA 1151	7h 03m	94%	78%
American Details →	XNA 06:34 → DFW 07:55AA 1700	3h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:54 → DCA 15:59AA 1414	8h 25m	100%	72%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:34 → ATL 10:32DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360	6h 22m	95%	71%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	2h 13m Chicago	ORD 09:25 → DCA 12:31AA 315	6h 25m	92%	70%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:52 → ATL 12:49DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850	6h 38m	96%	69%
United Details →	XNA 07:37 → ORD 09:42UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 33m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	5h 45m	100%	69%
American Details →	XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	2h 22m Charlotte	CLT 14:34 → DCA 16:13AA 2839	6h 22m	99%	66%
American Details →	XNA 14:38 → DFW 16:02AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	3h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:00 → DCA 23:59AA 2077	8h 21m	98%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	48m Chicago	ORD 08:00 → DCA 10:59AA 2345	4h 53m	65%	50%
American Details →	XNA 17:53 → ORD 19:47AA 3846 · flown by Envoy	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 21:03 → DCA 00:17 +1AA 514	5h 24m	68%	49%
American Details →	XNA 09:52 → LGA 13:55AA 4591 · flown by Republic	48m New York	LGA 14:43 → DCA 16:10AA 2142	5h 18m	20%	11%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON