Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, DL 4895 at 17:49, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4895 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	XNA 17:49	DTW 20:58	27%	12%	2.1%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	XNA 07:34 → ATL 10:32DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	7h 08m	97%	79%
American Details →	XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 14:37 → DTW 16:32AA 1897	6h 41m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:52 → ATL 12:49DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	6h 35m	96%	74%
American Details →	XNA 06:34 → DFW 07:55AA 1700	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:52 → DTW 15:25AA 679	7h 51m	100%	74%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	3h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:47 → DTW 13:15AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	7h 09m	94%	71%
American Details →	XNA 11:07 → CLT 14:30AA 5446 · flown by PSA	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 17:22 → DTW 19:08AA 1443	7h 01m	96%	67%
American Details →	XNA 15:20 → CLT 18:39AA 5327 · flown by PSA	3h 26m Charlotte	CLT 22:05 → DTW 23:52AA 419	7h 32m	100%	63%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Denver	DEN 17:47 → DTW 22:43UA 1220	8h 15m	99%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:08 → DTW 10:58AA 3101	4h 58m	71%	59%
American Details →	XNA 07:48 → ORD 09:39AA 3933 · flown by Envoy	1h 08m Chicago	ORD 10:47 → DTW 13:15AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	4h 27m	64%	48%
United Details →	XNA 18:21 → ORD 20:16UA 4411 · flown by GoJet	1h 12m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → DTW 23:51UA 349	4h 30m	72%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON