Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 4088 at 05:06 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 43–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 4088 XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest G7 4470 XNA 14:57 → ORD 17:00 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4088 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 05:06	ORD 07:12	21%	7%	1.6%	86%
AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 10:23	ORD 12:13	30%	11%	1.8%	90%worse than usual
UA 4612 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 07:37	ORD 09:42	33%	9%	2.1%	81%worse than usual
G7 4435 GoJet	XNA 11:10	ORD 13:04	36%	16%	2.9%	no record
AA 3933 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 07:48	ORD 09:39	36%	9%	1.4%	84%worse than usual
UA 4411 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	XNA 18:21	ORD 20:16	43%	19%	2.6%	62%
MQ 3470 Envoy	XNA 14:00	ORD 15:51	44%	18%	2.2%	no record
AA 3846 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	XNA 17:53	ORD 19:47	44%	17%	2.1%	70%worse than usual
G7 4470 GoJet	XNA 14:57	ORD 17:00	46%	21%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON