Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5551 at 06:12 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 5551 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 06:12	PHL 10:11	14%	6%	1.4%	86%
AA 5543 American flown by PSA Flight history →	XNA 13:01	PHL 16:50	28%	9%	1.2%	63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	XNA 05:00 → DFW 06:20AA 3614 · flown by Envoy	2h 08m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:28 → PHL 12:41AA 2255	6h 41m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	XNA 07:34 → ATL 10:32DL 5497 · flown by Endeavor	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 14:00 → PHL 16:04DL 1692	7h 30m	97%	73%
American Details →	XNA 08:51 → CLT 12:12AA 3871 · flown by Envoy	1h 50m Charlotte	CLT 14:02 → PHL 15:50AA 2573	5h 59m	96%	70%
American Details →	XNA 06:34 → DFW 07:55AA 1700	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:38 → PHL 14:00AA 402	6h 26m	94%	69%
United Details →	XNA 07:37 → ORD 09:42UA 4612 · flown by GoJet	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 10m	100%	68%
American Details →	XNA 15:20 → CLT 18:39AA 5327 · flown by PSA	3h 46m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → PHL 00:13 +1AA 1827	7h 53m	100%	67%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:52 → ATL 12:49DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → PHL 18:12DL 1329	7h 20m	97%	66%
American Details →	XNA 05:06 → ORD 07:12AA 4088 · flown by Envoy	1h 24m Chicago	ORD 08:36 → PHL 11:55AA 1725	5h 49m	86%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	XNA 18:16 → CLT 21:28AA 5233 · flown by PSA	57m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → PHL 00:13 +1AA 1827	4h 57m	71%	48%
American Details →	XNA 17:53 → ORD 19:47AA 3846 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Chicago	ORD 21:05 → PHL 00:25 +1AA 3177	5h 32m	70%	44%
American Details →	XNA 15:57 → DFW 17:26AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	1h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	6h 00m	71%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON