Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, OO 4633 at 13:33, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OO 4633 SkyWest	ACV 13:33	LAX 15:44	12%	6%	2.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest	1h 56m San Francisco	SFO 09:05 → LAX 10:49UA 1457	4h 49m	96%	71%
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m San Francisco	SFO 18:57 → LAX 20:38UA 1799	6h 33m	96%	62%
United Details →	ACV 16:12 → SFO 17:33UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	2h 15m San Francisco	SFO 19:48 → LAX 21:18UA 2409	5h 06m	93%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	1h 03m San Francisco	SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754	4h 00m	55%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON