Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 4972 BNA 10:20 → JAX 12:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 170 BNA 17:08 → JAX 19:43 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4972 Southwest	BNA 10:20	JAX 12:55	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4668 Southwest	BNA 15:00	JAX 17:35	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 170 Southwest	BNA 17:08	JAX 19:43	15%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON