Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: PT 6131 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day PT 6131 BUF 07:11 → PHL 08:45 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5809 BUF 17:17 → PHL 18:50 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6131 Piedmont	BUF 07:11	PHL 08:45	9%	4%	2.4%	no record
AA 5868 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	BUF 10:54	PHL 12:26	13%	5%	1.8%	80%
PT 5800 Piedmont	BUF 13:03	PHL 14:36	20%	9%	2.2%	no record
PT 5804 Piedmont	BUF 15:04	PHL 16:35	22%	10%	2.0%	no record
PT 5870 Piedmont	BUF 19:46	PHL 21:23	24%	11%	2.8%	no record
PT 5809 Piedmont	BUF 17:17	PHL 18:50	27%	12%	3.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON