Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Honolulu on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Burbank). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUR 07:00 → SLC 10:01DL 2582	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:31DL 861	10h 31m	98%	80%
United Details →	BUR 13:45 → SFO 15:13UA 1453	3h 47m San Francisco	SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638	10h 58m	98%	78%
United Details →	BUR 07:00 → SFO 08:28UA 488	2h 03m San Francisco	SFO 10:31 → HNL 13:01UA 8280	9h 01m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	BUR 07:09 → PDX 09:27AS 562	1h 03m Portland	PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813	9h 19m	95%	65%
Alaska Details →	BUR 16:53 → SEA 19:30AS 537	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 23:16 → HNL 02:13 +1AS 899	12h 20m	99%	64%
United Details →	BUR 10:53 → SFO 12:21UA 2386	1h 34m San Francisco	SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300	8h 25m	78%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON