Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1915 BWI 08:18 → SRQ 10:53 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 924 BWI 18:44 → SRQ 21:28 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1915 Southwest	BWI 08:18	SRQ 10:53	8%	2%	1.5%	no record
WN 1167 Southwest	BWI 14:48	SRQ 17:24	14%	6%	1.3%	no record
WN 924 Southwest	BWI 18:44	SRQ 21:28	18%	7%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON