Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: AA 4196 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4196 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 07:50	PHX 09:32	12%	5%	3.6%	94%
AA 3809 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	CID 14:35	PHX 16:07	23%	6%	4.9%	93%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Cedar Rapids). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CID 05:50 → ATL 08:52DL 2518	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 11:02 → PHX 11:59DL 687	8h 09m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	CID 17:00 → MSP 18:14DL 4906 · flown by Endeavor	3h 42m Minneapolis	MSP 21:56 → PHX 23:09DL 1448	8h 09m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	CID 06:15 → MSP 07:29DL 5248 · flown by Endeavor	1h 59m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	6h 28m	94%	75%
United Details →	CID 15:16 → DEN 16:30UA 514	2h 44m Denver	DEN 19:14 → PHX 20:16UA 1507	7h 00m	95%	71%
Delta Details →	CID 10:54 → MSP 12:08DL 4899 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 15m	97%	71%
United Details →	CID 08:50 → DEN 10:04UA 1500	3h 16m Denver	DEN 13:20 → PHX 14:24UA 631	7h 34m	95%	70%
American Details →	CID 07:59 → CLT 11:08AA 1039	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 14:24 → PHX 16:01AA 1711	10h 02m	94%	69%
American Details →	CID 10:35 → DFW 12:46AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:45 → PHX 15:24AA 801	6h 49m	100%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	CID 20:34 → ORD 21:48AA 3458 · flown by Envoy	1h 05m Chicago	ORD 22:53 → PHX 01:01 +1AA 435	6h 27m	74%	47%
American Details →	CID 10:35 → DFW 12:46AA 4297 · flown by Envoy	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:18AA 1507	5h 43m	27%	18%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON