Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13: AA 2688 at 10:29 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 2688 CLT 10:29 → RDU 11:32 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1897 CLT 19:38 → RDU 20:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2688 American Flight history →	CLT 10:29	RDU 11:32	10%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 1768 American	CLT 08:31	RDU 09:34	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 3072 American	CLT 12:10	RDU 13:13	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2799 American	CLT 16:00	RDU 17:06	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 494 American Flight history →	CLT 22:57	RDU 23:58	20%	6%	0.8%	74%
AA 1904 American Flight history →	CLT 17:57	RDU 19:00	21%	6%	0.8%	74%
AA 3178 American Flight history →	CLT 20:10	RDU 21:13	23%	6%	0.8%	72%
AA 1897 American Flight history →	CLT 19:38	RDU 20:32	28%	6%	0.8%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON