Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, AA 5575 at 10:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5575 American flown by PSA Flight history →	CLT 10:55	TVC 13:07	19%	4%	1.1%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	CLT 06:00 → DTW 07:42DL 1405	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 10:23 → TVC 11:34DL 3976 · flown by SkyWest	5h 34m	99%	78%
American Details →	CLT 07:46 → ORD 09:02AA 2843	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 12:13 → TVC 14:27AA 4307 · flown by Envoy	6h 41m	100%	69%
United Details →	CLT 15:02 → ORD 16:18UA 3491 · flown by Republic	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 18:27 → TVC 20:41UA 677	5h 39m	100%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON