Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 13 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5 DFW 11:30 → HNL 14:26 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest QF 7554 DFW 00:30 → HNL 03:26 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 13

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5 American Flight history →	DFW 11:30	HNL 14:26	28%	10%	0.8%	68%
AA 115 American Flight history →	DFW 09:15	HNL 12:11	29%	8%	0.7%	71%
QF 7554 Qantas	DFW 00:30	HNL 03:26	30%	6%	1.4%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 08:13 → SLC 09:57DL 1291	1h 49m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:46 → HNL 14:31DL 861	11h 18m	96%	78%
United Details →	DFW 07:00 → IAH 08:26UA 2670	1h 44m Houston	IAH 10:10 → HNL 13:26UA 253	11h 26m	98%	74%
American Details →	DFW 08:22 → PHX 09:00AA 520	1h 28m Phoenix	PHX 10:28 → HNL 14:12AA 693	10h 50m	92%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON