Tuesday, October 13 · typical odds for a Tuesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 13: one nonstop, AA 2679 at 12:30, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2679 American Flight history →	DFW 12:30	SRQ 16:02	30%	9%	1.9%	66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 05:50 → ATL 08:58DL 401	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 11:16 → SRQ 12:54DL 3104	6h 04m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	DFW 16:21 → ATL 19:28DL 921	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → SRQ 23:22DL 2997	6h 01m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 10:06 → ATL 13:25DL 839	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 14:55 → SRQ 16:32DL 3115	5h 26m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DFW 13:50 → ATL 17:14DL 414	2h 45m Atlanta	ATL 19:59 → SRQ 21:36DL 1057	6h 46m	96%	81%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 16m Charlotte	CLT 14:00 → SRQ 15:55AA 2143	7h 55m	100%	78%
United Details →	DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287	7h 04m	95%	75%
American Details →	DFW 17:00 → MIA 20:54AA 3308	2h 00m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	87%	71%
United Details →	DFW 13:00 → EWR 17:37UA 1574	2h 32m Newark	EWR 20:09 → SRQ 23:15UA 1324	9h 15m	87%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 13 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON